Hu Senlin: oil is far from revolutionary
The oil industry is on the fast track down. This has been circulating in the media and the public in the "new myth", also let a few practitioners in a constant state of anxiety. In fact, looking back on the oil history of the past 100 years, the oil industry has developed into the present one after a catastrophe and a lot of collective fears. Therefore, in the face of today's similar statement, it is entirely possible to say: "the oil industry is not really frightened."."
Recently, BP released the annual energy statistics report shows that oil is still the world's largest energy. By comparing oil, natural gas, coal and nuclear power, mankind still relies mainly on fossil fuels represented by petroleum. Over the past year, the world's oil consumption has not decreased, but continued to grow. Oil is still a major source of energy for decades. Can you say that the industry is a sunset industry?
Of course, the fall in oil prices hurts the industry, but it is wrong to simply think of low oil prices as the decline of the oil industry. On the contrary, low oil prices stimulated growth in oil consumption and made oil a stronger competitive advantage. This confirms a view of the author in this round of oil price decline at the beginning had proposed: the decline in oil prices is the oil industry self redemption, high oil prices are in the grave.
At present, the predicament facing the oil industry is not unique, but all types of energy are facing together. The energy industry as a whole shows a sluggish growth in consumption. There are two main reasons for this: the growth of the world economy is slowing down, and the efficiency of human energy use is increasing. From the data released by BP, we can see that the challenge of coal is larger than oil, showing a downward trend. It can be said that the challenges faced by fossil fuels come from the overall situation and competitiveness.
Oil prices are depressed because of oversupply, not the impact of new energy sources. Influence factors of oil prices in the future, or the relationship between supply and demand fundamentally, from the demand point of view, there is not much improvement, especially with the improvement in energy efficiency, demand growth will be greater pressure, OECD has basically the top energy consuming countries, the future potential development Chinese from home, such as India.
Influence of supply factors including OPEC production efforts continue to increase, but this can not hold too much hope; local war led to tight supply, the smaller the possibility; whether there will be a new mining technology, greatly increasing the supply, which is the same in principle and new energy. As long as oil prices are still in reasonable range, any high cost energy mining methods are not competitive.
Many people believe that the possible black swan event is a breakthrough in renewable energy technology and then a dramatic increase. There is no denying the fact that the cost of renewable energy is decreasing and the rate of increase is very fast. But simply applying Moore's law to calculate the turning point of energy substitution is obviously arbitrary. What should be seen is that the development of energy system has its inherent law and path dependence, and energy substitution is a gradual and slow process.
Just as the "myth and reality" energy professor Smiar said: "the historical experience shows that, as a modern society the most complex and capital intensive infrastructure and large volume of energy system has strong internal inertia. Our decisions can accelerate the transformation of the energy system, but it does not fundamentally change the natural attributes of energy development."
More than 100 years survey data shows that the energy structure, coal accounted for nearly 100 years with the ratio decreased from 95% to 24%, the proportion of oil from less than 5% to 25% spent 80 years, natural gas for nearly 70 years from 1% to 20% the proportion of growth. Oil use, even 100 years ago, "breakthrough" "explosive" technology, but still in a long time in a city and a pool of land. Thus, the transformation of new energy and energy structure transformation of the road is a long way to go. At the moment, the oil industry is far from being a revolutionary target.
Of course, in the long run, energy transformation is necessary and unavoidable, and the oil industry can not sit back and relax. A lot of times, the real enemy is not others, but yourself. A few years ago in the uproar of peak oil theory ", many people think that oil prices would have been high, leading to rising oil prices over the past cycle round, increase the cost of oil industry is far higher than other industries and industrial average rose. This is the industry lost, in a word, called forget the initial heart.
High oil prices have led to massive exploration activities that have spawned shale oil and sent oil prices down the horse. Under the influence of low oil prices, the exploration enthusiasm of oil companies has been greatly reduced. As investment weakens, the decline in supply in a few years is a high probability event, which will indirectly lead to a rebound in oil prices, while the strength of the rebound is proportional to the magnitude of the alternative.
In an uncertain world, it is difficult to predict where the black swan will take off, but people will always try to find the crystal ball that can predict the future". As a still full of confidence in oil industry, the author's opinion, adhere to the "oil road confidence, cautious decision-making, positive investment, improve competitiveness, realize stable development, it is of fundamental importance for petroleum industry.
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