Gasoline and diesel import and export profits upside down
“Although the trade friction initiated by the United States has no major impact on China's gasoline and diesel exports, in the face of the pressure of oversupply of refined oil products in China, the export volume of gasoline and diesel cannot play a role in digesting domestic production surplus. Take 2017 data as an example. The net export of gasoline accounts for nearly 8% of domestic gasoline production, and the net export of diesel accounts for 9% of domestic diesel production.” Longgui Information analyst Zhao Guizhen said that recently, the domestic weather is hot and hot, the southern plum rain season is coming, outdoor Demand for infrastructure concrete has fallen sharply, and diesel has entered the low season of traditional demand. Gasoline lacks the demand for holidays, and the demand for downstream stocks is insufficient.
Zhao Guizhen believes that under the constraints of weak gasoline and diesel demand, although exports can alleviate pressure, the country has cancelled the export quotas of local refineries from 2017. Currently, the export quotas are PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, Sinochem and CAO. Since 2018, the export quota has been shifted from processing trade to general trade. Of course, the local refining is also actively looking for sales channels, releasing the pressure of overcapacity by means of external mining and layout terminals.
Through the export of gasoline and diesel from South China Port to Singapore, we can explore the current situation of China's gasoline and diesel export arbitrage space upside down. According to statistics from Longzhong, in June this year, the average loss of gasoline and diesel exported to Singapore from South China Port was 264.12 yuan per ton, down 407.97 yuan/ton from May. The average price of the national five standard gasoline exported from South China Port to Singapore was 496.64 yuan per ton, an increase of 651.19 yuan / ton from May. "In June, Singapore's gasoline prices fell, import costs fell, while China's gasoline prices fell simultaneously, but the decline was not large, import losses have declined. On the export side, due to the downward adjustment of gasoline prices in Singapore, China's wholesale price of gasoline rose, gasoline exports The arbitrage loss has expanded," said Zhao Guizhen.
Data show that in June, China's imports of Singapore's diesel oil per ton loss of 70.53 yuan per ton, down 185.88 yuan / ton compared with May, China's South China port exports of Singapore diesel average loss of 274.08 yuan per ton, compared with May loss increased by 401.52 yuan / ton. “Singapore diesel prices have been lowered, while domestic diesel prices have risen, which has narrowed import profit losses. On the export side, domestic diesel wholesale prices have risen, while diesel prices in Singapore have fallen, turning export earnings from profit to loss.” Zhao Guizhen said.
Judging from the issuance of export quotas in the first half of the year, the national export quotas have been issued in two batches, including general trade and processing trade. There are two batches of general trade, the first batch is 16.24 million tons, the second batch is 19.33 million tons, and the processing trade is 7.31 million tons. It will not be known whether the quota will be reissued in the second half of the year. "From the construction progress of domestic 10 million tons of refining and chemical projects, Hengli Petrochemical's 20 million tons of equipment is scheduled to be put into operation in October. At present, Hengli Refining & Chemical's first imported crude oil is discharged to Hong Kong, and the device is driven into the countdown. After the production, the supply of gasoline and diesel will increase accordingly.” Zhao Guizhen said that with the advancement of new 10 million-ton refining and chemical integration projects such as Zhejiang Petrochemical and Shenghong Refining, local refineries hope that the country will liberalize the export. The mentality of quotas is even more urgent.