Domestic oil prices ushered in the biggest increase in the year.
Affected by OPEC's continued production cuts, strong global demand for crude oil, and increased geopolitical tensions, international oil prices rose sharply in the first half of the year and reached a new level.
The trade war launched by the United States has intensified the uncertainty of global economic development and may become an important factor that disturbs international oil prices.
On July 10, a new round of refined oil price adjustment window was opened again. As the eighth increase in refined oil prices during the year, the current price of gasoline and diesel increased by 270 yuan and 260 yuan per ton, respectively, the largest increase since the beginning of this year.
Since the beginning of this year, the price adjustment of domestic refined oil products has shown a situation of “eight ups and four downs and one stranded”. As of this price adjustment, the price of gasoline has increased by 880 yuan per ton, and the price of diesel has increased by 845 yuan per ton. At present, the price of No. 92 gasoline has risen from less than 6 yuan per liter in the same period last year to the current 7.48 yuan.
The price of refined oil products has risen frequently, which has aroused the concern of all parties in the society. What caused the oil price to remain high? Where will the future oil price go?
To answer the above questions, we must first understand the formation mechanism of domestic refined oil prices. According to reports, domestic refined oil prices are usually based on the crude oil price in the international market, combined with the average domestic processing costs, taxes, reasonable circulation costs and appropriate profits. The new refined oil price formation mechanism is based on 10 working days. When the international market oil price is higher than 130 US dollars per barrel, the maximum retail price of domestic refined oil is not mentioned or raised. When the price is lower than 40 US dollars, the maximum retail price is not lowered. When operating between the two, the domestic refined oil price mechanism is normally adjusted, and the increase will rise, and the drop will fall.
"Because of this, the turbulent international crude oil market is the root cause of the current rise in domestic refined oil prices." Liu Manping, senior economist at the National Development and Reform Commission's Price Monitoring Center, said that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) continued to reduce production, globally. The strong demand for crude oil and the intensification of geopolitical tensions have affected the international oil prices in the first half of the year and have risen to a new level.
According to OPEC's latest data, crude oil inventories of developed countries represented by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) fell below the 5-year average, indicating that the current global crude oil market has achieved rebalancing and pushed international oil prices up.
As the crude oil market shifts from oversupply to supply and demand balance, the impact of non-fundamental factors such as geopolitics on oil prices has become more apparent. The economic crisis in Venezuela has intensified, leading to a sharp drop in crude oil output. The United States has withdrawn from the Iran Nuclear Agreement and restarted sanctions against Iraq. A significant risk premium has come. In addition, the spread between Brent crude oil and New York West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has boosted US crude oil exports. Currently, the US national commercial crude oil inventories have decreased by 9.9 million barrels, far exceeding market expectations.
In stark contrast to the decline in supply, crude oil has shown a strong demand. In the first half of the year, the major economic data of the developed countries such as the United States and Europe recovered, and the Chinese economy continued to stabilize and improve, which further strengthened the market's expectation of rising global demand for crude oil.
Liu Manping said that in view of the comprehensive global economic situation and the fundamentals of supply and demand of crude oil, the global economy is expected to maintain rapid growth in the second half of the year, and the demand for crude oil is improving. The pattern of rebalancing supply and demand in the global crude oil market will not change. It should be pointed out that the impact of uncertainties such as geopolitical conflicts and trade frictions on international oil prices will further expand. It is expected that oil prices will fluctuate in a range, and the overall price level may slowly rise.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast, the global economic growth rate will reach 3.9% this year and next, and steady economic growth is expected to continue to drive demand for crude oil. From the perspective of seasonal factors, the second half of the year will usher in the summer season of travel and winter heating demand, which will provide strong support for international oil prices.
Guotai Junan Securities research believes that due to the lack of oil and gas investment in recent years, low global idle capacity, oil producers' expectations of medium and long-term oil prices, the third quarter of this year to July next year will be the prime time for oil prices to rise, the oil price center A high probability continues to go up.
In addition, uncertainties such as trade friction will further affect the trend of international oil prices. Experts said that the trade war launched by the United States has intensified the uncertainty of global economic development and may become an important factor that disturbs international oil prices.
The National Development and Reform Commission's Price Monitoring Center predicts that if the above factors causing oil price increases continue to be highlighted, short-term international oil prices may continue to rise, and future high-level shocks are also high-probability events. Follow-up needs to focus on OPEC crude oil supply, US shale oil production increase and Middle East geography. The impact of political conflicts on oil prices.
International oil prices are rising, who is behind the push?