International oil prices are rising, who is behind the push?
Recently, US President Trump repeatedly accused OPEC of "not helping" to curb the rise in crude oil prices. In response to the accusations of the United States, Sukher Mazrui, the rotating chairman of the OPEC and the United Arab Emirates Energy Minister, responded in an interview with Reuters: "The problems encountered by the oil industry cannot be blamed on the OPEC family."
Rising in volatility
According to reports, as of the close of July 12, the price of light crude oil for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $70.33 per barrel, and the price of London Brent crude for September delivery closed at $74.45 per barrel. . On July 11, crude oil prices experienced a sharp drop in a single day. But overall, since the beginning of 2017, the price of crude oil has risen sharply. In May this year, it even broke through $80 per barrel.
Since 2014, the global oil industry has experienced tremendous fluctuations, and oil prices have dropped from $100 per barrel to $30 per barrel, causing difficulties for major oil producers around the world. As an important oil-producing country alliance, OPEC finally introduced a production reduction agreement to balance the supply of oil and increase the price of falling cliffs. At present, this rebound has exceeded expectations, and the rise in oil prices has caused international concern.
"The deeper reason for the fluctuation of oil prices lies in the balance between supply and demand," said Chen Fengying, a researcher at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations. In an interview with this newspaper, "after the financial crisis, oil prices have fallen, and upstream investment in the international crude oil market has decreased significantly. OPEC and Non-OPEC oil-producing countries jointly adopt measures to cut prices and reduce the output of downstream oils, while the lag effect of input and output generally takes three to five years to appear. Therefore, oil production is indeed insufficient.
At present, crude oil production in major oil producing countries, Libya, Venezuela and Canada, has declined. The head of the Libyan National Oil Company recently said that the daily production of Libyan oil has dropped from 1.28 million barrels in February to the current 527,000 barrels. Data analysis company "global data" forecast, compared with the 2011 production of 3 million barrels of crude oil, the daily production of Venezuelan crude oil will shrink to about 1 million barrels at the end of 2018.
With the gradual recovery of the world economy, the development of the real economy and rising consumer demand directly boosted the sharp increase in oil demand. The International Energy Agency released a monthly report on June 13th. It is estimated that by the fourth quarter of this year, the global average daily crude oil demand will exceed 100 million barrels; in 2019, the global average daily demand for crude oil will increase by 1.4 million barrels per year. .
According to the analysis, low supply meets high demand, which has caused certain panic in the international crude oil market, boosting crude oil reserves and pushing up oil prices.
However, the direct cause of the recent fluctuations in oil prices is that the United States has announced its withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal and ordered the resumption of energy sanctions against Iran. Affected by this geopolitical risk, international crude oil prices soared, once breaking through $80 a barrel.
Energy pattern adjustment
"The United States ‘again the way and doing it’, blaming OPEC is actually an embarrassing energy strategy. The current oil price dispute is behind the reorganization of energy geopolitics.” Chen Fengying said. At present, the US crude oil supply has achieved basic self-sufficiency, and the increase in oil prices is undoubtedly beneficial to its shale oil exports. On the other hand, pushing up oil prices is obviously detrimental to the economic development of other countries, especially those with large demand for crude oil. This may just coincide with the recent US tariff disputes provoked by many countries.
Since the shale revolution in the United States, the world's energy landscape has undergone major changes, forming a pattern of new OPEC-led OPEC, a non-OPEC traditional oil-producing country headed by Russia, and a new three-legged crude oil market in the United States.
Regarding the direction of future crude oil prices, Chen Fengying said that "short-term highs do not mean long-term climbs." Subject to the recent trade war, trade and investment have been reduced, so oil prices will not continue to rise. As for OPEC’s meeting on increasing production, Chen Fengying believes that it may not achieve the expected results. “Because of the global economic recovery, the demand for crude oil market is growing, OPEC should indeed increase oil production; but the biggest unstable factor is still the US energy sanctions against Iran.”
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